Former Astronaut Mark Kelly rocketed onto the political stage in 2020. Kelly put together one of the strongest small-dollar fundraising campaigns in American history, despite being a first-time candidate. His fundraising helped power him to victory in the Grand Canyon State, giving Democrats control of both Senate races. That’s quite a change for Arizona, where, before Kelly, only one Democrat had been elected since 1962.
I run a Senate forecast at RacetotheWH that was one of the most accurate in the nation in 2022. We find that right now, Kelly has a 63% chance of winning re-election, and is projected to win by 3.7%. Although Arizona still leans to the right of the national popular vote, Kelly is one of the stronger candidates in the Democratic party, and he’d have a real shot at surviving even if Republicans have a strong year nationally.
One key indicator of the strength of a candidate is how they perform in comparison to other members of their party that ran in the same year. Kelly won Arizona by 2.4% in the same year in which President Biden won Arizona by 0.3%, and where Republicans collectively won 0.2% more than Congressional Democrats.
Now, Kelly will have to run again to secure his full six-year term. The last election won him just two years, as it was an irregularly timed special election to fill Senator John McCain’s seat. This election is going to be even tougher than the 2020 race because Republicans have a strong chance at winning the national popular vote as the party out of power.
With a 2.4% victory in his last election, Kelly can’t afford to give up m
uch ground while still pulling off a victory. His chances of victory will rise and fall depending on who Republicans nominate. His most likely opponent is Attorney General Mark Brnovich, who has already proven his statewide win-ability. Our forecast finds that Kelly’s odds of winning drop to 50.4% against Brnovich.
However, Brnovich isn’t a lock to get the GOP nomination. He currently enjoys the support of just 23% of primary voters. As such, he benefits from a split field, with venture capitalist Blake Masters, General Mike McGuire, and businessman Jim Lamon, who each earn 6-10% in our primary polling average.
Time will tell if voters will coalesce around an alternative to Brnovich. Mark Kelly has at least a 7% lead against Masters, McGuire, and Lamon; we project he’d have a greater than 70% chance of winning against all three.